While the positive image continues in the real sector confidence index data of March announced by the Central Bank, the raw data point to the highest levels since April 2018 and the adjusted data since February 2018. While RSGI increased by 1.5 points in March to 110.8; seasonally adjusted RSGI decreased to 110.2 with 1.5 points increase.
During this period, the manufacturing industry capacity utilization rate was 74.7% with a 0.2 point decrease; seasonally adjusted CUR was at the level of 75.6%.
When the diffusion indices of the survey questions that make up the index are analyzed, the last three months' production volume, export order quantity in the next three months, current total order quantity, fixed capital investment expenditure, current finished product stock and the total employment index in the next three months had an upward impact. The total amount of orders in the last three months and evaluations regarding the general course of the index affected the decline of the index.
The real sector confidence index continues to remain in the optimistic region above 100 base value since July 2020. The gradual recovery trend continues in the same way. Exports and production volumes are positively affected by the optimism of the demand picture in the Eurozone economies. When matched with leading indicators such as industrial production, the 1Q21 period will indicate a strong growth outlook. Here of course; We will also be monitoring the progress of vaccination, the impact of the Central Bank's shift on macro balances, especially on indicators such as current account balance, inflation and credit expansion, and the base effects from the period of closure effective after March 2020.
Kaynak Tera Yatırım
Hibya Haber Ajansı