US: Labor market data and NFP preview

There will be a big focus on non-farm payroll data to be released tomorrow.

There will be a big focus on non-farm payroll data to be released tomorrow. Previous data showed an unexpectedly strong increase in employment as 379,000 new jobs were added in February and data for previous months were revised significantly. Recruitments are likely to remain intact in March, with recent robust survey data pointing to optimistic job confidence, fueled by the spread of vaccines and new $ 1.9 trillion incentives. The unemployment rate now stands at 6.2%, compared to the April high of 14.7%. Unemployment is expected to fall to 6%. If it comes in the expected direction, it will have an upward effect on bond rates. Since Biden's spending plans are expected to increase inflation simultaneously with the economic recovery, the far side of the yield curve still maintains an upward trend.


ADP private sector employment increased by 517K during the week. Although not a reliable indicator in terms of official non-farm data, it shows that labor market dynamics have improved somewhat. The unemployment claims announced today reached 719,000 in the week ending March 27, an increase of 61,000 from the revised level of the previous week. The previous week's level was revised down from 684,000 to 658,000 from 26,000. The 4-week moving average was 719,000, down 10,500 from the revised average of the previous week.


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